The team at OLBG have delved into the data to reveal the US sports teams outperforming the odds the most, comparing actual wins to predicted wins for each of the last five seasons, to provide an ‘overall performance score’.
You can view the full research here – https://www.olbg.com/us/blogs/fairytale-major-league-franchises
Top 10 NBA teams outperforming the odds
| Rank | Team | 17/18 P.D | 18/19P.D | 19/20P.D | 20/21P.D | 21/22P.D | Overall Performance Difference |
| 1 | Toronto Raptors | 21.6% | 4.5% | 14.0% | -36.5% | 35.2% | 7.8% |
| 2 | Memphis Grizzlies | -41.3% | -4.3% | 23.6% | 20.6% | 34.9% | 6.7% |
| 3 | Charlotte Hornets | -15.3% | 9.9% | -2.1% | 24.5% | 11.7% | 5.7% |
| 4 | Oklahoma City Thunder | -10.3% | 1.0% | 35.4% | -2.2% | 2.1% | 5.2% |
| 5 | Sacramento Kings | -1.8% | 50.0% | -17.3% | 8.8% | -17.8% | 4.4% |
| 6 | Utah Jazz | 18.5% | 1.0% | -17.8% | 25.3% | -6.7% | 4.1% |
| 7 | Philadelphia 76ers | 31.6% | -4.7% | -21.1% | 12.6% | 1.0% | 3.9% |
| 8 | New York Knicks | -4.9% | -40.4% | -20.8% | 90.7% | -10.8% | 2.8% |
| 9 | Los Angeles Clippers | -3.4% | 29.7% | -8.4% | 1.1% | -7.7% | 2.3% |
| 10 | Phoenix Suns | -26.3% | -34.5% | 15.3% | 32.5% | 24.3% | 2.2% |
The research has revealed the following:
🏀 By winning 7.8% more games than predicted, the Toronto Raptors outperformed the odds better than any other franchise in the NBA.
🏀 The Houston Rockets underperformed against the odds the most, picking up 17.1% fewer wins than predicted.
🏀 The top 10 NBA teams from the results outperformed their predicted results by 4.5% on average, compared to a rate of -5.9% across the other 20 franchises.
Further findings from the study include:
🏈 The Seattle Seahawks have continually defied the preseason odds in the NFL by winning 23.8% more games than predicted between 2018-2022.
🏈 The top 10 NFL teams from the results outperformed their predicted results by 13.5% on average, compared to a rate of -9.7% across the NFL’s other 22 franchises.
🏈 The Jacksonville Jaguars topped AFC South in 2022 and won 38.5% more games than the bookmakers, but they have underperformed in four of their last five seasons to have the lowest ‘Overall performance Difference’ in the NFL at -32.5%.
You can view the full research again by clicking here.
